Bitcoin is closing out one of its most remarkable months in history, surging over $30,000 in November and marking a renewed bullish sentiment in the market. As we look ahead to December and beyond, investors are eager to understand whether Bitcoin’s momentum can sustain itself into 2025. With macroeconomic conditions, historical trends, and on-chain data aligning in Bitcoin’s favor, let’s analyze what’s happening and what it could mean for the future.
November’s Record-Breaking Performance
November 2024 wasn’t just any month for Bitcoin; it was historic. Bitcoin’s price rose from around $67,000 to nearly $100,000, an approximate 50% peak-to-trough increase, making it the best-performing month ever in terms of dollar increase. This rally rewarded long-term holders who endured months of consolidation after Bitcoin’s all-time high of $74,000 earlier in the year.
Figure 1: Bitcoin has rallied over $30,000 in November.
View Live Chart 🔍
Historically, Q4 is Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, and November has often been a standout month. December, which has also performed well in past bull cycles, presents a promising outlook. But as with any rally, some short-term cooling might be expected.
Figure 2: Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s best-performing period.
View Live Chart 🔍
The Role of the Dollar and Global Liquidity
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s rise occurred against the backdrop of a strengthening U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY), a scenario that typically sees Bitcoin underperforming. Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY have maintained an inverse relationship: when the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin weakens, and vice versa.
Figure 3: Bitcoin rallied even as the strength of USD increased.
View Live Chart 🔍
Similarly, the Global M2 money supply, another key metric, has shown a slight contraction recently. Bitcoin has historically correlated positively with global liquidity; thus, its current performance defies expectations. If liquidity conditions improve in the coming months, this could act as a powerful tailwind for Bitcoin’s price.
Figure 4: Global M2 YoY chart showing liquidity contraction.
View Live Chart 🔍
Parallels to Past Bull Cycles
Bitcoin’s current trajectory is strikingly similar to past bull markets, particularly the 2016–2017 cycle. That cycle began with gradual price increases before breaking key resistance levels and entering an exponential growth phase.
In 2017, Bitcoin’s price broke out from a key technical level of around $1,000, leading to a parabolic rally that peaked at $20,000, a 20x increase. Similarly, the 2020-2021 cycle saw Bitcoin rise from $20,000 to nearly $70,000 after breaking above the crucial YoY Performance threshold.
Figure 5: Current BTC performance showing parallels to price prior to breaking previous major resistance levels.
View Live Chart 🔍
If Bitcoin can break out decisively from this historic level and above the key $100,000 resistance, we may witness a repeat of these explosive price movements as BTC enters its exponential phase of bullish price action.
Institutional Adoption and Accumulation
A key factor underpinning Bitcoin’s strength is the continued accumulation by institutions. Bitcoin ETFs are adding billions of dollars worth of BTC to their holdings, and corporations like MicroStrategy have doubled down on their Bitcoin strategy, now holding close to 400,000 BTC. Even with BTC rallying to new all-time highs, ‘smart money’ is scrambling to accumulate as much as possible to ensure they’re not left behind.
Figure 6: Institutions are not waiting for a retracement to accumulate BTC.
View Live Chart 🔍
This institutional demand indicates growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, even in volatile market conditions. Such accumulation also tightens the available supply, creating upward pressure on prices as demand increases.
Conclusion
While December has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, short-term volatility could temper gains as the market digests November’s sharp rally. Although given the aggressive accumulation we’re witnessing from institutional participants anything is possible.
Longer-term, however, the outlook remains exceptionally bullish. The obvious level to watch is $100,000 as the next major milestone, which, if breached, could pave the way for a much larger rally in 2025. Bitcoin is entering one of its most exciting phases yet, with the stars seemingly aligning across macroeconomic, technical, and on-chain metrics.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The BIGGEST Bitcoin Month EVER – So What Happens Next?
🎁 Black Friday: Our Biggest Ever Sale
The BEST saving of the year is here. Get 40% Off all our annual plans.
UPGRADE YOUR BITCOIN INVESTING NOW
Unlock +100 Bitcoin charts.
Access Indicator alerts – so you never miss a thing.
Private TradingView indicators of your favorite Bitcoin charts.
Members-only Reports and Insights.
Many new charts and features coming soon.
All for just $15/month with the Black Friday deal. This is our biggest sale all year.
UPGRADE YOUR BITCOIN INVESTING NOW
Don’t miss out! 👉 https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/subscribe/
Users can enhance the privacy of their bitcoin operations by utilizing the RoninDojo Tanto in conjunction with Whirlpool.All Bitcoin transactions are public, anyone can look at them. Whirlpool breaks deterministic links to past transactions and provides forward-looking anonymity. This part of the series demonstrates how to Whirlpool your bitcoin so that you can take steps…
The ProShares bitcoin-linked ETF hit $1 billion in assets under management in just two days.ProShares bitcoin-linked ETF hit $1 billion in assets under management in just two days, a record for the ETF industry.Gold ETF GLD held the previous record, having crossed the $1 billion mark in three days after it launched in 2004.A second…
Mitch Klee discussed what it means for Bitcoin to introduce trustworthy, foundational money to the world.Watch This Episode On YouTubeListen To This Episode:AppleSpotifyGoogleLibsynOvercastIn this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Meet The Taco Plebs,” I talked to the one and only Mitch Klee, a repeat contributor here at the magazine and common presence in our Twitter Spaces.…
Coinfloor, the U.K.’s longest-running bitcoin exchange, is working to convert a decidedly non-digital audience into the latest batch of hardcore HODLers: Boomers. The exchange is capitalizing on what it sees as a growing trend among this generation, which may be just as disheartened by the rampant stimulus action from the world’s ingrained economies as younger…
According to local reports, Russia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and other law enforcement agencies are developing proposals to confiscate cryptocurrencies. These proposals could evolve into Russian laws as soon as 2021. “Russia plans to develop a legal mechanism for the seizure of virtual assets for their confiscation,” according to a translated report from RBC. “The…
There are many ways to improve your security with multi-factor authentication, but some kinds offer more protection from hacking and tracking.This is an opinion editorial by Heidi Porter, an entrepreneur with 35 years in technology.User SecurityIn previous articles about security and data breaches, we discussed the need for multi-factor authentication (MFA) on your Bitcoin accounts…
In a world with third-party custody and self-custody, bitcoin is the clear winner for offering protection from government overreach and seizure.This is an opinion editorial by Rowdy Yates, a former Marine and practicing lawyer.When most people hear the words “frozen bank account” or “asset forfeiture,” they likely picture a sophisticated government black box worthy of…
The plan would see the sale of Genesis alongside other measures in a deal reached with DCG and Gemini Trust Co.Genesis, a subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, has reached a restructuring agreement with key creditors according to statements by Cleary Gottlieb attorney Sean O'Neal, representing Genesis. It would see the sale of Genesis Global Trading,…
And the inescapable ravage of modern seigniorage… Source Originally, seigniorage, also spelled “seigneurage,” came from the Old French language, stemming from the right of the lord (seigneur) to mint money — profiting tremendously from money creation. It was a bygone prerogative of lords and the crown to extract a fee, the “brassage,” from the bullion…