U.S. CPI Falls to 3% in June, Core Rate Drops to 4.8%; Both Better Than Expected

The U.S. inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slipped to 3.0% on a year-over-year basis in June from 4.0% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and versus expectations for a dip to 3.1%. On a monthly basis, the CPI was higher by 0.2% in June versus 0.1% in May and expectations for 0.3%.

The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, fell to 4.8% from 5.3% previously and against forecasts for 5.0%; the monthly core CPI was 0.2% in June versus 0.4% in May and forecasts for 0.3%.

The price of bitcoin (BTC) – which has been in a holding pattern between $30,000 and $31,000 for much of the past few days – rose modestly to $30,900 in the immediate aftermath of the report.

Today’s report shows headline inflation continuing to decline, with June’s 3% down from a peak of 9.1% in 2022. Maybe more importantly to the policymakers at the Federal Reserve, the core rate of inflation finally began to budge – to 4.8% from 5.3% – after stubbornly remaining above 5% this year.

Nevertheless, markets and the Fed (if recent speakers are to be believed) continue to anticipate another rate hike when the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets later this month. The CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 91.1% chance of the FOMC boosting rates at its July 25-26 meeting.