The Reason Why Bitcoin Halving Can’t Be Priced In Before It Actually Happens
The debates on whether or not the forthcoming Bitcoin halving will affect the price of the asset continues with full force. While some people believe that the event has already been priced in and the community should not expect a significant boost, others presume that Bitcoin is yet to encounter the real impact.
Bitcoin Halving Can’t Be Priced In
The Bitcoin Halving is arguably the most awaited event this year in the crypto community. It occurs every four years, and the next one is supposed to take place somewhere in May 2020. The halving ultimately slashes the block rewards that miners receive for their work in half.
So far, there have been two events, cutting the rewards from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC and then to 12.5 BTC. The upcoming one will reduce them to 6.25 BTC.
Historically, after each of the previous halvings, the price of Bitcoin has increased significantly. As a result, many people anticipate that after May this year, the largest cryptocurrency will surge again.
This assumption was recently confirmed by the prominent Bitcoin proponent – CryptoBull. He maintains that “the halving is not just a news event.” Moreover, he indicates that “it simply can’t get priced in before it happens,” because there will be 900 fewer bitcoins reaching the market every day.
The halving is not just a “news event” and should not be treated as such.
900 less BTC hitting the market EVERY SINGLE DAY over the next 4 years.
It simply can’t get priced in before it happens.
— Crypto₿ull (@CryptoBull) January 22, 2020
Could It Be Priced In?
Others consider the opposite, claiming that the halving has already been priced in. Cryptopotato recently reported that a popular analyst argued that Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model has already impacted the price. He assumes that only 10% of people understand this model, which could be the reason why only a handful believe in this theory.
However, he’s not the only one who thinks so. Meltem Deminors, the Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, also thinks that Bitcoin’s price will not go through a positive move after the halving. Her opinion is based on the increasing impact of the Bitcoin derivatives market. She suggests that since most traders are utilizing derivatives to speculate, instead of actually owning any bitcoins, the price will not go up.
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