Retail Investors Were Likely Behind The Crypto Market Rally in February, JPMorgan Says

• Retail activity has increased ahead of three important crypto catalysts in the coming months.

• Platforms such as the Block, Paypal and Robinhood all saw an increase in trading activity in the fourth quarter 2023.

• The share of AI and meme tokens in the total crypto market rebounded in February.

Retail investors were likely responsible for the strong crypto market rally in February, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report Thursday.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin (BTC), is up 30% in the last 30 days, while the Coindesk 20 index {{CD20}} rose 24%, according to CoinDesk indices data.

The revival of the “retail impulse” is in anticipation of three main crypto catalysts in the coming months: “the bitcoin halving event, the next major upgrade of the Ethereum network and the prospect of approval of spot ether ETFs by the SEC in May,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

JPMorgan says the first two of these catalysts are largely priced in, while the bank only sees a 50% chance of the third.

This retail impulse can be seen in on-chain cumulative bitcoin flows, which saw larger flows from smaller wallets, which is a proxy for retail investor involvement, the report said.

The bank notes that retail-focused platforms such as the Block (SQ), PayPal (PYPL) and Robinhood (HOOD) all saw an increase in trading activity and investor flows in the fourth quarter of 2023. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) also saw an increase in retail investor trading activity in the same period.

The share of artificial intelligence (AI) and meme tokens in the total crypto market rebounded again in February, a further indication of increased retail activity, the bank said.

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