Kamala Harris’ Odds Tumble on Polymarket as Donald Trump Reclaims the Lead

On Polymarket, election bettors are once again leaning toward Republican candidate Donald Trump.

In the meantime, Kamala Harris, the Democratic contender, saw her odds dip to 47% over the weekend, down from an earlier 50/50 chance.

Trump Surges Back to 53% on Polymarket

Trump’s odds of winning the November election had peaked at 71% in July but dropped to 44% in August after President Joe Biden announced he wouldn’t run, paving the way for Harris’ candidacy.

Soon thereafter, Harris’ odds climbed to over 55% in early to mid-August, positioning her as the frontrunner. However, her support among Polymarket traders has waned in recent weeks, while Trump’s has steadily increased back over 50%, putting him back in the lead after nearly two weeks of even odds.

Trump’s recent pro-crypto stance contrasts with his 2021 comment, wherein he labeled the asset class as a “scam.”

In July, the former President delivered a keynote address at a Nashville Bitcoin conference, where he vowed to support the BTC mining sector despite its criticism for significant electricity consumption. Recently, Trump released a new set of NFTs, branded as digital trading cards with phrases like “crypto president.”

Previous similar NFT sales have generated millions, although it’s unclear how much Trump personally gained.

Trump’s Strong Appeal to Crypto Investors

A recent FDU poll reveals that Trump’s embrace of crypto in the 2024 US presidential election appears to be paying off. Specifically, he leads Harris by 12 percentage points (50% to 38%) among likely voters who own crypto or related assets.

On the other hand, Harris holds a 12-point advantage (53% to 41%) among voters who do not own crypto. The notable preference for Trump among crypto owners is not attributed to other influencing factors, highlighting his effective appeal to this demographic.

Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson and the Executive Director of the poll, said,

“Trump has been reaching out to the crypto community, and it seems to have paid off. It might be easy to dismiss them as insignificant, but I don’t think people realize exactly how widespread crypto ownership is. Historically, Republicans have had a hard time reaching young people and people of color. Support for cryptocurrencies is very much a wedge issue that could win over voters that otherwise look more like Democrats.”

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