Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?
Bitcoin (BTC) price has rebounded by 14.60% after plunging below $75,000 for the first time in five months in April. However, its failure to break above the $85,000 resistance level decisively has sparked concerns that the ongoing recovery may trap bulls.
Gold’s rally may risk crashing Bitcoin below $50,000
Bitcoin could continue to underperform as Donald Trump’s intensifying global trade war drives investors toward safer assets like gold, according to Bloomberg’s Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone.
McGlone argues that risk assets are showing signs of reverting to long-term means, mainly their 200-week moving averages that have historically served as critical floor during major price corrections.
As of April 20, Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average was around $46,300, down by about 45% compared to current price levels at around $85,000.
Meanwhile, gold has surged to a record high of $3,115 per ounce in April, up over 19% year-to-date. The precious metal continues to attract capital amid rising geopolitical tensions, recession fears, and tariff-driven inflation risks.
According to McGlone, this rotation into hard assets like gold and out-of-high-beta plays like crypto reflects a classic flight to safety.
The divergence between gold and Bitcoin is evident in institutional investment trends.
For instance, the ETFs backed by the precious metal have seen consistent inflows in 2025, attracting over $27.10 billion year-to-date, according to data resource World Gold Council.
Conversely, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced $12.38 billion in outflows, according to data resource Glassnode.
However, not all analysts see gold’s rally lasting. Veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed to a possible “blow-off top” for gold, warning that such rapid gains typically end in sharp reversals, though timing the peak remains risky.
Some believe that if gold’s momentum fades, Bitcoin could continue its bull run, providing its history of lagging the precious metal rally by several months.
Bitcoin’s unrealized losses suggest early bear market risk
Glassnode data reveals a growing divergence between short-term and long-term Bitcoin holders, hinting at potential early-stage bear market conditions, albeit not a confirmed crash.
Notably, short-term holders (STHs)—those who acquired Bitcoin within the past few months—have been facing substantial unrealized losses relative to the current drawdown.
This level of loss, normalized by drawdown percentage, is comparable to the early stages of past bear markets, including late 2018 and early 2022.
In contrast, long-term holders (LTHs)—those holding Bitcoin for over 155 days—remain broadly in profit.
However, the data suggests a growing risk: as BTC top buyers from recent highs age into LTH status, more unrealized losses could shift into the long-term cohort. Historically, most shifts in loss absorption have preceded bear market regimes.
Therefore, the risk lies in whether LTH profitability can withstand prolonged market weakness—or if capitulation sets in as it did during previous downtrends.
For now, caution may be warranted, but this data does not yet confirm an outright crash.
Bitcoin is still in bull market, PlanB asserts
Some analysts view the current dip as a standard correction within a broader bull trend. Among them is pseudonymous analyst PlanB, who argues that Bitcoin remains structurally bullish.
According to PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) and 200-week moving average models, Bitcoin’s current price action mirrors historical consolidation phases seen before major rallies.
In particular, past cycles show that when the 200-week simple moving average (black line) converges with the 200-week geometric mean (gray line), Bitcoin tends to surge soon after. This convergence is happening again in April.
PlanB also highlights the red-dot phase—representing the 6-month pre-halving to the 18-month post-halving window—as historically bullish. Bitcoin is now seven months into this period, which has consistently delivered explosive price action in previous cycles.
“On-chain indicators still point to a bull market,” PlanB noted, suggesting that the recent pullback is more likely a setup for the next leg higher above $100,000 than a breakdown into a bear market.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
