Is Bitcoin on Shaky Ground? Market Signals Reflect Patterns That Foretold the Recent Slide in Trump Media Shares

• The implied probability distribution is skewed to the left, suggesting expectations for price pullback.

• Shares in Trump media experienced a similar dynamic before the recent price slide.

As bitcoin’s (BTC) price struggles to secure a foothold above $90,000, developments in the Deribit-listed options market tied to the cryptocurrency resemble patterns that foreshadowed the recent price slide in the Trump media shares.

The pattern referred to here is the implied probability distribution, representing markets’ expectations for the underlying asset’s future price derived from options prices at different strike prices and expiration dates. It shows the probabilities traders assign to the asset reaching different price levels.

Per data tracked by crypto financial platform BloFin, the implied probability distribution now shows a “left shift,” suggesting that the market participants see a higher probability of BTC trading at lower prices from here.

“A typical indicator is the implied probability distribution: whether it is MSTR, COIN or Deribit’s BTC options, the implied probability distribution of different expiration dates has shown a significant left shift,” Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at crypto financial platform BloFin, told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat. “It seems that traders have an implied consensus that the prices of BTC and altcoins are still high, and more pullbacks may be on the way.”

Ardern added that a similar left shift was seen in the DJT options market, presaging the recent price slide. The share price has halved to $27 in just over two weeks, according to charting platform TradingView. DJT surged to a high of $54 at the end of October, as markets priced in a potential victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election held on Nov. 5.

Well, pro-crypto Trump emerged victorious as expected, and since then, BTC has surged by over $20,000, tapping the $93,000 mark at one point.

As of writing, the cryptocurrency changed hands at $88,100, according to CoinDesk data.

Hawkish comments from the Fed officials support the case for a price pullback suggested by the implied volatility distribution. On Thursday, Chairman Jerome Powell said that the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates, dashing hopes for faster liquidity easing. Since September, the Fed has already cut rates by 75 basis points, offering bullish cues to risk assets.

That said, most market participants continue to be bullish, taking bets that would profit from a potential price rise beyond the $100,000 barrier.