Here’s When Altcoin Season Will Occur, According to Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes, American entrepreneur and co-founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has predicted that altcoin season would come after bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively.
In an essay titled “Water, Water, Everywhere,” Hayes stated that the combination of a dollar liquidity-inspired BTC and ETH rally toward the end of the year would build a strong foundation for the return of a “sexy shitcoin soiree.”
Alt Season to Follow BTC Rally
According to Hayes, Solana (SOL) will also surge past $250; however, the asset’s pump will not have a huge effect on the crypto market compared to bitcoin and ether due to the wide gap in their market caps. In addition, BTC and ETH now have “structural bids” in the form of inflows into exchange-traded funds.
“While Bitcoin and Ether have corrected since April, they escaped the carnage experienced in the shitcoin markets. Alt szn will return only after Bitcoin and Ether decidedly break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively,” he said.
Hayes expects BTC to recover from the correction caused by the dollar-yen decline soon, rallying to $100,000 during the next leg of the bull cycle, which will extend to all risk assets. The entrepreneur believes the surge would be triggered and sustained by the U.S. Treasury issuing at least $301 billion worth of treasury bills between now and year-end.
Recent historical data cited by Hayes shows that BTC pumps when the U.S. government issues treasury bills. Conversely, BTC has traded sideways or recorded intense dips whenever treasury bills were net withdrawn from the market. These market moves were seen before the dollar-yen fell from 162 to 142, causing a general selloff in risk assets.
“In any case, I expect that crypto will exit its sideways-to-downward trajectory starting in September. As such, I will take advantage of this late northern hemispheric summer weakness to load up on crypto risk,” he added.
Hayes Maintains BTC to $1M Prediction
Interestingly, Hayes intends to return to the sidelines after the U.S. presidential elections in November. He said he would “watch the chaos” and return to the market after the U.S. debt ceiling is raised in January or February.
Following the rise in the U.S. debt ceiling, the BitMEX co-founder expects liquidity from the Treasury to get markets back on track and trigger the main bull run, which will see bitcoin rally to $1 million.
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