Harris Won U.S. Presidential Debate Versus Trump, Polymarket Betting Suggests

Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have beaten former President Donald Trump in the first debate between the U.S. presidential candidates on Tuesday, based on the direction of prediction bets on Polymarket, while crypto policy went unmentioned.

Despite Harris’ performance, the two candidates are effectively tied in the Polymarket contract for who will win the actual election, with Harris’ odds increasing slightly during the course of the debate.

This is the second presidential debate in the 2024 election. Harris’ campaign called for a third debate – which would be the second between Harris and Trump – after Tuesday’s event ended. It’s also the second debate that did not delve into crypto, or even general technology or finance issues beyond a section on the economy.

Trump, as he has been doing in recent weeks, touted the benefit of tariffs during his time on the stand, saying he would have “substantial tariffs.”

Harris pushed back, saying Trump left the Biden administration with a trade deficit, “one of the highest we’ve seen in history.”

As with an earlier debate between Trump and President Joe Biden before the latter dropped out of the race, fact-checkers including CNN reporter Daniel Dale said Trump made more inaccurate statements than Harris. At one point Trump claimed – falsely, according to the Wall Street Journal – that migrants are “eating the dogs” in Springfield, Ohio. (That remark inspired a few new memecoins on the token launchpad Pump.fun, including EATING DOGS AND CATS.)

Following the debate, musician Taylor Swift endorsed Harris, saying Harris “fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion.”

Polymarket’s busy night

Bettors had a busy night on Polymarket, after the night began with an unexpected handshake between the candidates.

The market had pegged the chance of a handshake at roughly 30%, with around $360,000 on the line. Trump and Harris shook hands as the night began – something that didn’t happen since the first 2016 debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Bettors were quite skeptical that crypto or bitcoin would get mentioned during the evening, placing the chances of it happening at 26% for Trump and 14% for Harris.

One user going by the handle “trumpisreal” won over $10,000 in the stablecoin USDC by correctly guessing that Trump would mention “Springfield” and “Cat,” a reference to debunked claims that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, are eating pets. The debate moderator pointed out that city officials said there was no evidence of that happening.

On the Harris side, bettors took home money early in the evening when the Democratic candidate mentioned “Project 2025” and “Artificial Intelligence” in the first moments of the debate.

Bettors are confident that polls will say that Harris had won the debate, putting it at 98%, and giving a 59% chance that Harris will be the Polymarket election contract favorite the day after the debate. Harris will be the confirmed debate winner on the contract if an Ipsos/538 opinion poll taken the same day indicates she had a better performance.

Overall, there is nearly $860 million bet on the presidential election.

Nikhilesh De is CoinDesk’s managing editor for global policy and regulation. He owns marginal amounts of bitcoin and ether.

Follow @nikhileshde on Twitter