First Mover: It Might Be Getting ‘Silly’ as Bitcoin Passes $39K, $40K, $41K

Bitcoin’s momentum showed few signs of slowing on Friday, as prices pushed to a new all-time high after blowing through $40,000 for the first time. 

• Joe DiPasquale, CEO, BitBull Capital, a cryptocurrency-focused hedge fund. He says bitcoin “has been and remains extremely volatile.” As recently as Monday, he noted, after prices had climbed to a new all-time high, they tumbled almost $7,000. “What causes this is that people can use lots of leverage, so they can easily get washed out.” He sees a correction as possible, though there appear to be plenty of interested buyers around $28,000, so that might level might function like a price support barring any major news that might send prices crashing. What might that be? A forceful move by regulators to impose stiff anti-money-laundering rules on merchants, raising the threat of prosecution or forfeiture if bitcoin can be traced back to illicit proceeds. That might scare off new buyers. 
•  Gavin Smith, CEO of the digital-asset firm Panxora. According to Smith, there hasn’t been a single year since 2013 when prices have not fallen at least 25% from a high point reached earlier in that year. “Before that it would move so much up and down that you can’t really draw any analysis.” He said he wouldn’t be surprised to see bitcoin prices rise to $70,000 or $80,000, nor if a setback of 40% were to materialize. Medium term, he’s bullish: “Over a three-year period, this is a great asset.” Over the long term, there’s a risk that technological developments could overtake bitcoin. “Even with quantum computing, there’s nothing on the horizon that indicates that could happen,” he says, “but it’s always dangerous to completely ignore the risk.” 
• Mike Venuto, co-portfolio manager of the Amplify Transformational Data Sharing exchange-traded fund, which invests in blockchain-related stocks. Will bitcoin crash? “People are going to ask this, because the last time we had a rally like this, it did crash.” He sees bitcoin prices rallying two to three times from their current level before falling back to about where they are now. That would imply a two-thirds retracement from that hypothetically new all-time high. “What’ll cause a crash more likely is overexuberance on the upside. I don’t think we’re there yet.” He says he estimates bitcoin’s fundamental value, based on the current size of the network, to be “somewhere between $40,000 and $50,000,” though that could increase over time. 
• Denis Vinokourov, head of research for the cryptocurrency prime broker Bequant. “There will be swings, and yes, the swings will be wild,” he says. “You have a lot of retail flow that tends to panic.” He sees prices going up, in the long term, at least partly based on the bullish expectations of big Wall Street firms. “Can it go to $4,000? Yes.” One potential trigger for a rapid sell-off could be any actions brought by authorities against tether (USDT), a privately issued, dollar-linked digital token known as a “stablecoin” that has become a key source of liquidity in digital-asset markets. New York State prosecutors are currently battling Tether in court due to its finances.
• James Angel, Georgetown University finance professor. “The history of financial markets is the history of bubbles, where investors get carried away with enthusiasm and they bid the prices of certain assets to levels far above their fundamental values,” Angel says. He notes that authorities could move to crimp the bitcoin rally if they start to get worried that it’s becoming a threat. “Almost everybody who tries to start their own money does so in competition with a national currency, and it usually gets shoved aside by regulators.” 
• Sui Chung, CEO of CF Benchmarks, a cryptocurrency provider. “Bitcoin passing the $40,000 milestone shows the market still sees upside in the cryptocurrency market. While we’re currently seeing an unequivocal expression in the market’s bullish sentiment, a correction could well be on the horizon. But this is a natural part of market mechanics. While it may dampen near-term enthusiasm, it will ensure future price rises remain grounded.”
• Guy Hirsch, managing director for the U.S. at the trading platform eToro. “There is likely to be profit taking along the way, causing temporary dips (which are of course magnified with bitcoin, relative to traditional assets) but, given the extraordinary amounts of adoption by institutions, it would be a surprise if bitcoin dropped below $20,000 any time soon – though I would caveat this to say that we are monitoring proposed regulatory measures and the posture of the new Administration towards crypto to assess if they would have an adverse impact on institutional adoption of crypto assets.”