First Mover Asia: Bitcoin Holds Below $27K Amid Macro Uncertainties

Good morning. Here’s what’s happening:

Prices: Bitcoin remains in the red as Asian markets open and investors consider U.S. debt ceiling woes and other uncertainties.

Insights: In an interview with CoinDesk, Market maker Flowdesk’s CEO sees opportunity in the U.S.

As the Asian trading day opened, investors continued to mull over recent macroeconomic uncertainties that have plagued digital assets for more than 12 days.

Bitcoin was recently trading at $26,362, down about 3.1% over the past 24 hours. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization had been hovering in a narrow range before dipping below its recent $26,500 support early Wednesday. Markets have been roiled by an ongoing debt ceiling stalemate and inflationary and crypto regulatory concerns. Federal Open Market Committee minutes showing a difference of opinion among U.S. central bankers about further rate hikes did little if anything, to soothe markets – crypto or otherwise.

“Bitcoin remains rangebound and should continue to consolidate near the lower boundaries of its downward sloping trading range, with the $25,000 level providing massive support,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst for foreign exchange market maker Oanda, wrote in an email.

Ether was recently changing hands at about $1,800, down 2.8% from Tuesday at the same time. Other major cryptos were mostly in the red, with popular memecoins DOGE and SHIB recently falling about 3% and 4%, respectively. The CoinDesk Market Index, a measure of cypto markets performance, was down 3%.

Moya wrote that “bitcoin is under pressure as the risk of a U.S. default grows,” and the U.S. central bank faces the prospect of continuing its monetary tightening.

“Bitcoin is going to be very sensitive to surging Treasury yields as too many crypto/blockchain companies will struggle with financing,” he wrote. “It is hard enough to find a bank that will deal in cryptos, let alone take out loans for long-term projects.”

Market Maker Flowdesk Aims for U.S. Expansion

It’s tough to find someone that’s bullish on the U.S. crypto market. Some of the most recognizable names in the industry are bearish, citing a lack of regulatory clarity, like Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.

Coinbase has threatened to move offshore if regulatory clarity isn’t established soon. And its sentiment is shared by many – plenty of crypto venture capitalists prefer to invest in places like Singapore.

But Guilhem Chaumont, CEO of market maker and liquidity provider Flowdesk, sees things differently.

In an interview with CoinDesk, Chaumont says he views the U.S. as a central hub for the crypto market and believes his company can thrive there due to its commitment to compliance and regulatory requirements – as onerous and unclear as they might be – from day one.

Chaumont told CoinDesk that his company had just opened a New York office, which it wants to expand.

The sophistication and size of the U.S. capital markets is a worthwhile trade-off for having to deal with its regulatory regime, he argues.

He said that there’s an inevitable convergence of crypto and traditional finance (TradFi) regulations, which he views positively. He also notes the potential for a talent bridge between the sectors.

“Crypto is not going to happen without regulation. And if that means that regulation needs to be TradFi levels, we are on this side, as we prefer to have this than having no regulation basically,” he said.

Hong Kong, for example, heavily emphasized the TradFi experience when it recently released the first draft of its crypto licensure framework.

“The convergence of these two regulatory frameworks is a positive sign for us. Because it will allow for a massive bridge of talent to come into crypto,” Chaumont said.

In an ideal world, Chaumont says, there would be purpose-built regulation for crypto, but sometimes a compromise is necessary. After all, the future of crypto trading involves more and more regulated assets.

“There was a hope, which I shared, that we could reinvent everything from scratch and take the best of both worlds to devise new regulation that is simpler than that of TradFi and lacks its costly complexity,” he said. “What we’re seeing is that this hope is slowly fading away, and crypto regulation is basically converging with TradFi.”

Which, for Flowdesk, isn’t a bad thing.

Following scrutiny from the crypto community, hardware wallet provider Ledger said it will delay releasing a key recovery feature. Ledger CEO and Chairman Pascal Gauthier joined “First Mover” to discuss why the firm won’t introduce the new feature before releasing the code for it. Separately, Prometheum Inc. founder and co-CEO Aaron Kaplan discussed the SEC-friendly crypto path that the firm has found with the U.S. regulator. And, “The Crypto Trader” author Glen Goodman shared his markets analysis, as bitcoin (BTC) is on track to post its first losing month of 2023.