First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Sits Around $58.5K at Start of Historically Bearish September

Some traders noted that September is generally one of bitcoin’s most bearish months, but said that an interest-rate cut by the Fed could break the trend. “September is a historically negative month for bitcoin, as data shows it has an average value depletion rate of 6.56%,” Innokenty Isers, founder of crypto exchange Paybis, said. “Should the Feds cut the interest rate in September, it might help bitcoin rewrite its negative history as rate cuts generally lead to excessive US dollar flow in the economy – further strengthening the outlook of bitcoin as a store of value.”

Election punters on Polymarket are favoring Republican candidate Donald Trump again as Democrat Kamala Harris’ odds slipped to 47% over the weekend from even odds earlier. Harris’ appeal has drifted lower in the past weeks among traders on Polymarket, while Trump’s has gradually climbed back over 50%. He is again in the lead after nearly two weeks of even odds. Traders have placed $99 million in on-chain bets on Trump winning the election, with over $95 million put on Harris. Harris’ odds have slipped amid outcry for a proposal to tax unrealized gains for people worth over $100 million. Meanwhile, Trump’s odds have increased as he promotes a forthcoming decentralized finance project that could offer “high yields” for crypto users.

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