Crypto Traders Remain Cautious About Downside Risks in Bitcoin, Ether; SOL Stands Out

• Options data show a bias for short-term puts, or bearish positions, in bitcoin and ether.

• Cautious sentiment persists as a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut nears.

• SOL is likely to remain more resilient than ether.

Prices for the two biggest cryptocurrencies, bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), have bounced almost 10% from Friday’s lows amid bullish signals from key order book metrics and expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next week.

Still, traders remain concerned that prices are set to show weakness in the short term. That’s the message from options-based risk reversals tied to bitcoin and ether.

A positive risk reversal suggests that call options are more expensive than puts, indicating bullish sentiment in the market, while a negative figure suggests the opposite. Call options allow the buyer to profit from or hedge against price rallies; puts offer downside protection.

According to Singapore-based QCP Capital, options trading on Deribit shows a bias for puts.

“Given the velocity of last week’s dip, the market is still very cautious about downside risk,” QCP’s market insights team said in a Telegram broadcast. “Risk reversals until October are still skewed towards puts in both BTC and ETH.”

Traders turned to put options on Friday after a weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) print revived recession concerns, triggering risk aversion in financial markets.

“NFP failed to reassure markets. Fast money continued to add to Puts buying 1week $49-$53k Puts when BTC <$55k," Deribit Insight's Tony Stewart said in a market update.

According to Stewart, recent options market flows point to concern that BTC will drop to $50,000 or even $40,000. At press time, the biggest cryptocurrency by market value was priced around $57,000, CoinDesk data show.

The cautious sentiment perhaps stems from historical data, which shows recessions and risk aversion tend to follow the start of a Fed rate-cutting cycle. The central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points next week.

Price rallies could be fleeting until the Fed meeting, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, the senior analyst at The FxPro.

“In our view, caution and a tendency to sell growth will prevail in the market, at least until the release of U.S. inflation data on Wednesday. This could continue until the Fed’s interest rate decision on September 18th,” Kuptsikevich said in an email.

SOL seen as relatively resilient

Market participants expect Solana’s sol (SOL) to remain relatively resilient, outperforming ether in the near-term.

SOL’s one-month options skew, another measure of demand for calls relative to puts, crossed above zero early Tuesday, according to Amberdata. Meanwhile, ether’s one-month skew hovered near -2%, exhibiting a bias for put options.

“Traders are making significant moves to protect downside risk in Ethereum, while simultaneously showing appetite for upside potential in Solana. This divergence paints a picture of a market hedging its bets,” Kristian Haralampiev, structured products lead at Nexo, told CoinDesk in an email.

“Adding to the intrigue, Ethereum’s volatility index remains notably elevated compared to Bitcoin’s, hinting at potential turbulence ahead for ETH,” Haralampiev said.