Crypto Market Rebound Expected in August, Liquidations to Finish By July-End: JPMorgan

• The crypto market is expected to rebound from August onward, the report said.

• The bank reduced its year-to-date net flow estimate to $8 billion from $12 billion.

• Bitcoin reserves across exchanges have fallen in the last month due to liquidations by creditors of Mt. Gox and Gemini, and selling by the German government.

Crypto liquidations should abate this month and the market is expected to rebound from August onward, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report on Wednesday.

The bank reduced its year-to-date crypto net flow estimate to $8 billion from $12 billion previously.

The Wall Street firm said it was skeptical that the prior estimate of $12 billion would continue for the rest of the year given how high bitcoin (BTC) was relative to its production cost or relative to the price of gold, the report said.

“The reduction in the estimated net flow is largely driven by the decline in bitcoin reserves across exchanges over the past month,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

This decline in reserves is likely a reflection of bitcoin liquidations by creditors of Gemini or defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox, or selling by the German government, which has been offloading crypto that it seized from criminal activities, the bank said.

The bank’s reduced estimate of $8 billion is comprised of a $14 billion net flow into crypto funds by July 9, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures flows of $5 billion, $5.7 billion of fundraising by crypto venture capital funds year-to-date, minus a $17 billion adjustment to account for the rotation from wallets on exchanges to new spot bitcoin exchange-traded-funds (ETFs).

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Will Canny is CoinDesk’s finance reporter.