Cointelegraph Consulting: New stimulus checks may push Bitcoin price toward $12K

The latest research by Cointelegraph Consulting suggests that financial stimulus packages bolster the stock market and cryptocurrencies. The first round of checks worth $1,200 were deposited directly into bank accounts on April 11. A week later, the CEO of Coinbase, Brian Armstrong, pointed out that the deposits in the amount of $1,200 on Coinbase were surging. 

Now, Washington is debating whether to issue a second round of checks. If they do, this could be good for the prices of all assets, including stocks and digital assets, in the short to medium term. If the House of Representatives passes the bill before the presidential election, the checks are estimated to be sent out by December.

By the end of the summer, the S&P 500 recovered and even reached a new all-time-high. Bitcoin has also climbed from $6.5K in March to above $10.5K by October. The growth in the prices of these assets may be explained by the huge financial stimulus packages provided by governments around the world. The U.S. dollar money supply (M1 aggregate) rocketed from $4 trillion in the beginning of 2020 to $5.5 trillion as of the middle of the year.

Expected inflation has also grown from 2.5% in January to 2.9% in June. In fear of an inflation outburst, the demand for the store of value assets increases. This is one reason for the rally in gold. Bitcoin is also often seen as an alternative to traditional safe havens. However, Cointelegraph Consulting’s research report shows that the volume of stimulus itself is not the only factor impacting capital market growth. The other crucial considerations are discussed in the report.

By September, the total amount of fiscal packages in the major countries amounted to $10 trillion, or 7% of the global GDP. Due to the state-sponsored fiscal support, U.S. households have accumulated an extra $2 trillion in their bank accounts. Not all of these funds have been used for immediate consumption. Instead, the financial behavior of U.S. citizens has become much more conservative, and the household saving rate has doubled during the crisis from 7% to 15%.

Although some citizens used state support checks to pay down debt, the indebtedness of U.S. households is still very high, which could make long-term price appreciation of traditional and alternative assets difficult to sustain.

Read the full mini-report here to get the entire analysis, complete with charts.

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