Coinbase Third-Quarter Revenue Misses Estimates; Shares Fall: Analysts

• Coinbase third-quarter net revenue missed estimates.

• Institutional interest in the stock is growing as it becomes a more important component of various equity indices, JMP said.

• The U.S. presidential election is an important short-term catalyst for both Coinbase and the industry, and may lead to a more benign regulatory backdrop, the analysts said.

Coinbase (COIN) shares fell after the crypto exchange reported a top-line miss for the third quarter.

The stock dropped 2% to $207.50 in early trading Thursday. The company reported earnings after the close of U.S. markets on Wednesday.

KBW noted that total net revenue of $1.1 billion was 3% below its forecast and 5% below consensus estimates. The miss was driven by lower transaction revenues and a drop in subscription and services revenues, the investment bank said.

Still, reduced operating expenses more than offset the revenue miss and contributed to a better figure for adjusted EBITDA, said KBW, which has a market perform rating on the stock and a $165 price target.

Retail trading volumes were higher than expected but were totally offset by a compression in the retail fee rate, it said, noting that fourth-quarter commentary was also weak.

JMP said Coinbase management remains focused on the product roadmap, which is expected to drive further mainstream adoption.

The U.S. presidential election is likely to be a positive catalyst for both Coinbase and the wider crypto market, the broker said, as its expects “greater clarity and building consensus among legislators on both sides of the aisle in the coming months.”

Institutional interest in Coinbase is growing as it has become a more meaningful component of various stock indices, which is a positive development, JMP said. The broker has a market outperform rating on Coinbase shares with a $320 price target.

Canaccord noted that Coinbase continued to grow its business model in the quarter, despite lower market volatility and trading volumes, with more revenue coming from recurring sources such as staking and custody.

A larger catalyst in the short term could be a change in the regulatory regime following the U.S. election next week, the broker said.

A clearer regulatory framework could result in the dismissal of the current Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) case against Coinbase, Canaccord said.

The broker has a buy rating on Coinbase stock with a $280 price target.