Bitcoin’s Range-Bound Stalemate Signals Imminent Big Move, Analysts Warn

Despite another dip in crypto markets over the weekend, they have been largely range-bound for the past six months.

On Sept. 2, on-chain analyst James Check said that the Bitcoin “chopsolidation is evolving.”

He added that the swings are getting larger and more sustained but cautioned that the price range is becoming unstable.

“Screams to me that this price range is becoming ‘unstable’, and the market is ready to move somewhere else.”

The #Bitcoin chopsolidation is evolving.

The swings are getting larger, and more sustained.

Screams to me that this price range is becoming ‘unstable’, and the market is ready to move somewhere else. pic.twitter.com/2YqerEIefs

— _Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) September 1, 2024

BTC Up or Down in September?

Some have suggested that the big move may come in September, given the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate adjustment. However, analysts have observed that September is historically bearish for Bitcoin.

Since 2013, BTC has seen monthly positive returns of +2.35%, +6.04%, and +3.91% across three Septembers. However, there were losses ranging between -1% to -7.5% for six previous ones, observed “Rekt Capital.”

The analyst concluded that Septembers were usually consolidation months with a higher chance of small downsides.

“Across Septembers therefore, we more commonly see small single-digit downside vs small-digit upside.”

Is September really a down month for #BTC?

Since 2013, $BTC saw monthly returns of +2.35%, +6.04% and +3.91% across three Septembers

And across 6 Septembers, BTC saw negative monthly returns ranging between -1% to -7.5%, with only two instances of double-digit downside (i.e.… pic.twitter.com/S4VZxh9t9s

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) September 1, 2024

Meanwhile, analyst Willy Woo looked at the distribution of Bitcoin on exchanges noting that the influx of BTC from the German and US governments and Mt.Gox distributions “is slowly being absorbed.”

Leverage in crypto derivatives is also declining, which is a good sign, he said before adding:

“Overall, in terms of supply, things have moved from bearish towards neutral.”

Commenting on liquidity using the 7-day liquidation heatmap on Sept. 1, analyst “CrypNuevo” said that there is a large cluster of liquidations at $57,000, very close to the 50% of the wick at $56.600. However, it’s possible that we could see first a run for liquidity up to $61,300, he observed.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

Bitcoin declined during the weekend, falling from around $59,000 to the support level of $57,000. However, the asset recovered a little to reach $57,500 during the Monday morning Asian trading session.

Bitcoin finished the month of August at a loss of 8.6%. Nevertheless, only those who bought BTC in 2024 would be at a loss, observed James Check.