Bitcoin’s Active Supply Hits 19 Month Low — Is It Bullish or Bearish?

Bitcoin’s (BTC) active supply has hit a 19-month low of just over one million Bitcoin. This could signal a potential strong price increase if it plays out in line with the findings of a report from asset manager Stack Funds earlier this month. 

Bitcoin active supply. Source: Glassnode

Consistent with the 2017 bull run

The active supply saw a sharp increase earlier this year with a 16% increase in less than three weeks to over 1.3 million Bitcoin. Looking at the 90-day moving average over the last three years, this pattern of a sharp increase followed by an almost equal pull back was seen twice before, both right before a strong price increase.

Bitcoin 90-day active supply. Source: Stack Funds

The decrease in active supply demonstrates that more users are holding onto their Bitcoin rather than trading it. 

Active addresses show the same pattern

Earlier this month, Bitcoin Active addresses increased sharply, hitting a one-year high before pulling back over the last two weeks. Again, this pattern is seen immediately before the bull run of 2017 and the strong price rise in Q1 2019.

Bitcoin active addresses. Source: Glassnode

Miners are a strong portion of those holding Bitcoin

A relatively new stat released by Glassnode looks at Bitcoin miner’s netflow volume — the amount of Bitcoin flowing into miners’ addresses minus the amount of Bitcoin flowing out of them — shows that miners are a strong percentage of those holding Bitcoin with almost an entirely positive netflow since the start of the year.

Bitcoin miners’ netflow volume. Source: Glassnode