Bitcoin Price Analysis Feb.26: Bitcoin Is On a Decision Point. The $3700 Seems Fragile

Just as it in crypto, when you think that everything is back to normal (a.k.a. green on the screen), 30 minutes is enough time to ruin your thoughts and pension.

We mentioned that weekends are the perfect time for BTC price manipulations. As we’ve seen on Sunday, Bitcoin “returned” in less than an hour the amount it gained for six trading days. Right after completing the target of $4200, which is a significant resistance for BTC, Bitcoin lost approximately $500 in the daily, finding support only at $3700.

Looking on the daily chart, we see that Bitcoin found support at the lower trend-line of the ascending channel (marked in orange).

The market cap of all cryptocurrencies is currently $129.6 Billion, whereas BTC dominance is 52% (Bitcoin share of the total market cap).

Looking at the 1-day & 4-hour charts

– Support/Resistance: Following the violent break-down, we can see that the next significant support level is the 4-hour moving average line around $3740 (marked in white), this line was supporting BTC on the Sunday’s freefall and since then. Below lies the $3700 support level, before getting to $3600 (along with the 4-hour MA-200) and the famous $3480 – $3500 support area.

From above, support turned resistance levels at $3850, $3900 (along with the 4-hour 50-MA) and $4050.

$3700 is where the critical daily chart’s 50-days moving average is currently at (marked in white). To sum it up, $3700 is the key level to watch for the short-term.

– The daily chart’s RSI level: Following the severe drop, the RSI had broken down the 56 support line, retested it to confirm as a resistance level, and as of now the daily RSI is getting supported by the long-term descending line. Watch carefully for any breakouts.

– The daily trading volume: We recently identified an increase in Bitcoin’s trading volume, which overall is bullish. However, the recent sell-off was followed by a high amount of volume.

– BitFinex open short positions: This tells another exciting story. Following the breakdown of The 19K support line, the line is now getting retested as resistance. The current number of open short positions is 18.30K BTC. Again, watch it closely.