Bitcoin on Track for Best Second Quarter Price Gain on Record

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• Bitcoin’s 165 percent gain so far this quarter is the best second quarter performance on record and the highest quarterly percentage gain since the end of 2017. The stellar gains have bolstered the long-term bullish technical setup.
• While the relative strength index is reporting overbought conditions, there are no signs of bullish exhaustion on the daily, 3-day or weekly charts. As a result, the outlook remains bullish with resistances lined up at $11,247 and $11,394, according to Bitstamp data.
• A minor pullback to $10,000 could be seen if the price again fails to hold onto gains above $11,000, validating a more bearish setup on the 4-hour chart.
• The bullish outlook would be invalidated if the price finds acceptance below $9,097 (May 30 high).

Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be powering to the best second quarter price gain on record and the best quarterly performance overall since late 2017.

At press time, the 165 percent gain on the April 1 opening price of $4,092 is the biggest percentage rise observed in May to June to date, going by Bitstamp data.

Further, bitcoin’s triple-digit gain so far for Q2 is the best quarterly rise overall since the fourth quarter of 2017. Over that period, the cryptocurrency rose 230 percent, propelling prices to a lifetime high of $20,000 in December.

Monthly chart

• Bitcoin has rallied 165 percent so far this quarter, surpassing the previous second quarter record gain of 130 percent seen in 2017.
• Prices jumped a meager 10.9 percent in the first quarter this year.
• The 626 percent rise seen in the first three months of 2013 is bitcoin’s biggest quarterly gain to date.

With the 165 percent price rise, BTC seems to have left the bear market far behind. In fact, the bearish-to-bullish trend change was confirmed on April 2, when prices rallied $1,000 to levels above $5,000.

The cryptocurrency then rose above $8,000 in the run-up to New York Blockchain Week held from May 10 to May 18 and remained bid after the event to hit highs near $9,100 on May 30.

The two-month double-digit winning streak has now extended into June, with prices briefly hitting 15-month highs above $11,000 over the weekend. The recent leg higher from $7,500 to $10,000 could be associated with Facebook’s foray into cryptocurrencies.

Observers believe that Facebook’s Libra project will not only boost the adoption of cryptocurrencies, but will also strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as an anti-establishment asset.

Further, the leading cryptocurrency by market value is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May next year. Therefore, the long-term price prospects look bright.

In the short run, however, a repeated failure to hold onto gains above $11,000 could yield a correction. As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $10,880, representing 2.4 percent gains on the day.

Weekly, 3-day and daily charts

The RSIs on the weekly, 3-day and daily charts are reporting overbought conditions with above-70 readings.

So far, however, prices aren’t showing any signs of bullish exhaustion. The bullish structure of higher lows and higher highs is intact and the 5-and 10-candle moving averages (MA) on all three charts continue to trend north.

The overbought readings on the RSIs would gain credence only if signs of bull exhaustion emerge in the form of candlestick patterns such as doji, bearish engulfing, hanging man, etc.

The bullish outlook would be invalidated only if and when prices drop below $9,097 (May 30 high), invalidating the bullish higher lows and higher highs pattern.

On the higher side, resistance is seen at $11,247 (Sunday’s high) and $11,394 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the bear market drop).

4-hour chart

BTC has failed twice over the weekend to hold onto gains above $10,000 with the RSI charting lower highs (bearish divergence).

That RSI pattern would gain credence if the cryptocurrency again fades a break above $10,000, leading to a drop toward $10,000 – the support of the ascending trendline.

BTC was expected to put on a good show in the three months to June 30 this year, as a number of technical indicators had turned bullish in February and March.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by TradingView