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The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
Can Bitcoin witness a scorching rally in the remaining part of the year? Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors certainly thinks so and he has his reasons. He is still hopeful that the leading digital currency can reach $25,000 by the end of the year.
We, however, have maintained throughout that the people who are hoping for a repeat of the previous year’s rally will be disappointed. With a number of traders reeling under huge losses, it will take a lot of effort to turn sentiment around.
A trade war between the top two economies of the globe, or a currency crisis could certainly provide a big boost, but we believe that the recovery in cryptocurrencies will be gradual and will take time. A few of the top cryptocurrencies are showing signs of bottoming out.
Let’s find the ones that look good to lead the recovery higher.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin is the only virtual currency among the top 10 that has been trading above the 20-day EMA for the past three days. On August 24, the price again broke out of the downtrend line of the descending triangle, which is a bullish sign. This shows that buyers are gradually returning at these levels. The 20-day EMA is slowly turning up while the 50-day SMA is flat.
The critical level to watch on the upside is $6,955.79. The 50-day SMA is also located close to this level. If this critical resistance is crossed, the BTC/USD pair will pick up momentum and move up to $8,566.40. If the bulls fail to scale the $7,000 level, the digital currency will spend some more time in a bottom formation. We suggest traders hold their long positions with a stipulated stop loss.
On the downside, the critical support zone to watch is $5,900–$6,000. If this breaks, lower levels of $5,450 and $5,000 will become a reality.
ETH/USD
Ethereum has been trading close to the $280 level for the past seven days. In the last two days, the intraday range has shrunk sharply. This low volatility phase is unlikely to sustain for long.
Any pullback attempt on the upside will face a stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA and above that at the downtrend line. The ETH/USD pair will show signs of a change in trend if it sustains above $358.
We will wait for the price to break out of the 50-day SMA before suggesting a long position.
XRP/USD
The range in Ripple has shrunk in the past three days. The market participants are interested in neither buying or selling at these levels. This state of equilibrium is unlikely to continue for long.
A breakout of the 20-day EMA is likely to carry the XRP/USD pair to the 50-day SMA at $0.40, with minor resistance at the downtrend line 2. Above the 50-day SMA, the downtrend line 1 is the next major resistance point. Short-term traders can piggyback on this pullback trade, but only with a smaller position size because the trend is still down.
On the downside, any break of the $0.30 line will result in a drop to the August 14 low of $0.24508. We will wait for a buy setup to form before recommending any positions.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash has been trading in a tight range of $513.60–$544.5476 for the past four days. Such a small range bound action is unlikely to continue for long.
The BCH/USD pair will either break out or breakdown sharply within this week. On the upside, once above the 20-day EMA, the downtrend line will act as a stiff resistance. Once the bulls scale above the downtrend line, a rally to $900 is probable.
If the bears break below the support zone of $473–$500, a retest of the $400 level will be in the cards. We will wait for the price to close (UTC time frame) above the downtrend line before suggesting any long positions.
EOS/USD
The bulls have held EOS above $4.50 for the past 10 days, but have been unable to break out of the 20-day EMA.
The zone between the 20-day EMA and $5.65 might offer stiff resistance, above which a rally to the 50-day SMA is probable.
We will turn positive on the EOS/USD pair after the bulls close (UTC time frame) above the 50-day SMA. As an early entry point, we might suggest initiating a small position if the bulls break out of $5.65 with force. Until then, we suggest to stay on the sidelines.
XLM/USD
Stellar continues to trade close to the bottom of the range. During the previous two instances, the consolidations ended with a breakout to the upside.
If the bulls succeed in breaking out of the current consolidation, a move to the downtrend line is probable. The up move will pick up momentum after breaking out of this resistance. The longer the XLM/USD pair remains inside the range, the stronger the breakout will be.
Therefore, we suggest initiating a long position at $0.25 if the price sustains the level for about four hours. The initial stop loss can be placed at $0.18, which can be trailed higher as the digital currency reaches close to the downtrend line.
We suggest to use only 50 percent of the regular allocation. The rest of the position can be added if the price sustains above the downtrend line for a couple of days.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the price below $0.184.
LTC/USD
Litecoin has been trading inside the range for the past 16 days. The previous attempt to form a bottom failed on August 7 when bears broke below the range of $74–$94.
Bears benefit as moving averages continue to slope downward. Any up move will face stiff resistance at $62.319, at the 50-day SMA and the downtrend line.
The LTC/USD pair will show the first signs of recovery when it breaks out of the downtrend line. We will wait for the trend to change before suggesting any long positions.
ADA/USD
Cardano continues to trade inside the range of $0.083192–$0.111843. It has not seen a huge interest from buyers as it is still below the 20-day EMA, which is sloping downward.
The bulls face overhead resistances between the 20-day EMA and the 50-day SMA. Any of these levels can cause the price to turn down.
Therefore, we will turn positive on the ADA/USD pair only after it sustains above $0.13 for about three days. Until then, we suggest traders stay on the sidelines.
XMR/USD
Monero is attempting to rebound from the strong support level of $81. The 20-day EMA, the 50-day SMA and the downtrend line will act as stiff resistance on the upside.
The XMR/USD pair has not broken out of the long-term downtrend line in 2018. Hence, a breakout of this will indicate a probable change in trend. We may suggest a long position once the price sustains above the downtrend line.
Ideally, after such an extended downturn, we would like to see a few days of accumulation close to current levels. We will buy when the trend has changed from down to up.
IOTA/USD
After consolidating in a tight range for about 10 days, IOTA is trying to break out of the 20-day EMA. If successful, it should move up to $0.6872 and thereafter to the 50-day SMA.
As the price has sustained above the range and the 20-day EMA for the past few hours, traders can buy the IOTA/USD pair at the current levels with the stop loss at $0.46.
On the other hand, if the bears sink the prices below $0.46, the pair can drop to $0.4037.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. The charts for the analysis are provided by TradingView.
