Bitcoin ETFs have 75% chance of approval this year: Bloomberg analysts

Bloomberg analysts have raised the probability for an approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of 2023, following a recent Grayscale victory against the federal securities regulator.

In a Aug. 30 post on X (Twitter), Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said they have raised the chances to 75% from an earlier 65% — due to the unanimity and decisiveness at which the United States Court of Appeals Circuit reached its decision in the recent case.

“The judges unanimously repudiated the SEC’s arguments, and the agency will struggle to justify further denials as it faces deadlines,” Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein added in a separate Aug. 30 note.

NEW: @JSeyff & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of ’24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w “very little wiggle room” via @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023

In his own post on X, Seyffart added that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals will likely be a “done deal” by Q4 2024, estimating the approval odds to have now skyrocketed to 95% by then.

Balchunas added that given the recent legal and public relations loss, a denial by the SEC will be “politically untennable.”

Beyond the legal loss, there is also the PR loss (which matters bc it sets narratives, changes minds). And this got covered far and wide in mainstream media incl NYT, WSJ, CNN, AP, ABC & on and on. We think the legal and PR loss will combine to make denial politically untenable. pic.twitter.com/Uarh5CszXC

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023

Related: Grayscale wins the court battle, but what does this mean for a spot Bitcoin ETF?

Over the next five days, seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications are due for a “first deadline” decision by the SEC, including Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree and Valkyrie.

Balchunas said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the SEC delays these upcoming Bitcoin spot ETF applications.

But the most likely outcome will be that we unexpectedly wake up to the SEC giving in and approving the Bitcoin spot ETFs in one hit, he said.

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