Bitcoin could hit $500K before Trump leaves office — Standard Chartered

US President Donald Trump’s first month in office has been highly volatile for risk assets, but his administration will likely be a net positive for Bitcoin in the long run, according to Standard Chartered.

In a Feb. 27 interview with CNBC, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said he expects Bitcoin’s (BTC) price to reach $200,000 this year before surging to $500,000 before President Trump concludes his second term. He cited growing institutional adoption and the potential for clearer regulations as positive catalysts. 

Despite recent volatility, crypto markets should become less rocky over time as more institutions adopt the asset class, said Kendrick. These players will also alleviate the security risks that seem inherent to crypto protocols, as evidenced by the recent $1.4-billion hack of crypto exchange Bybit.

“What we need are traditional financial players, like Standard Chartered, like BlackRock and others that have ETFs now to really step in,” said Kendrick. “It’s institutions like ours that now offer custody businesses that are much more secure than the hacks.”

“As the industry becomes more institutionalized, it should be safer,” he said. 

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Bitcoin’s stomach-churning volatility

Since reaching an all-time high above $109,000 in January, Bitcoin’s price sank to a more than three-month low of around $80,000 this week as President Trump reasserted his tariff threats on China and allies Mexico and Canada. 

Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods scheduled to go into effect on March 4 “will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled,” Trump said on Truth Social.

Bitcoin reacting so sharply to tariff threats suggests that the digital asset has become highly correlated with stocks and liquidity conditions, according to market commentator The Kobeissi Letter.

Global Macro Investor Julien Bittel said Bitcoin’s recent pullback is “normal in bull markets,” especially after the massive run-up in price following the US presidential election. 

Meanwhile, Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, said two of three “core liquidity measures” in his framework have turned bullish following the recent sell-off. Expanding central bank balance sheets and a rising global money supply usually bode well for Bitcoin. The only domino left to fall is the US dollar.